Joy-Lance Mickels used to watch Old Trafford on a television screen in Germany, the club he supported a continent and a currency away from the modest football he was actually playing. On Thursday night he walks out under those same floodlights in an away shirt, about to become the first Rwandan to ever play a Champions League match proper. That is not a footnote to this game. It is close to the whole story of why Manchester United's much-changed defense should not be treated as a formality against a side written off before a ball is kicked.
Sabah arrive at Old Trafford as complete newcomers to this stage, a club from Masazir on the edge of Baku that did not exist when Sir Alex Ferguson was still patrolling this touchline. They got here by coming from behind against Hapoel Beer-Sheva in the play-off round, which tells you something about a team that does not panic when a tie goes against the run of play. They are not a soft touch simply because the name is unfamiliar. But they are still a level, arguably two levels, below a Manchester United side that even in an unconvincing moment retains Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Šeško in the final third. That gap in raw talent is the starting point for any honest read of this match, and it is why United should win comfortably. The nuance is in how comfortably, and at what defensive cost.
A dream debutant with real teeth
Mickels is 32, born in Germany, a Rwanda international by citizenship, and by some distance the most dangerous individual on the Sabah team sheet. Nineteen goals in 25 Azerbaijan league appearances last season, enough to finish as the division's top scorer, is not a record you dismiss because of where it was compiled. Players who score at that clip in a rhythm-heavy environment tend to have the two qualities that travel best onto a bigger stage: know-how in the box and independence from service, because at some point in most matches a striker like that has to make his own opportunity rather than wait for a pattern of play to deliver one to him. Sabah's plan, all but certain to be a deep block designed to concede the ball and the territory rather than the space in behind, will be built around funneling the game toward moments where Mickels can do exactly that. If Khayal Aliyev's tendon injury is the one confirmed absence for the visitors, that is a remarkably clean bill of health for a team about to be outclassed for large spells, and it suggests Sabah's coaching staff have had a full week to drill this specific containment job with their best possible group.
United's patched-up back line
This is where the column earns its skepticism about a routine, clean-sheet United performance. The team news is not good. Matthijs de Ligt is managing his way back from a back issue and, even having returned to training, is unlikely to be fully sharp on match sharpness alone. Manuel Ugarte is out for the long haul, not due back until next year, which removes the defensive midfield screen United have leaned on to protect their back four in exactly these kinds of games where the opponent looks to break at pace. Carlos Baleba and Amad Diallo are further absentees, and Tom Heaton's hamstring issue is a goalkeeping department concern more than a first-team one. The one that matters most for Thursday is Luke Shaw, who missed a session in the buildup and looks a genuine doubt at left back. If he is not risked, that side of the defense is likely reshuffled or filled by a converted option, and it is precisely the sort of area a sharp counter-attacking forward probes first.
The predicted United XI, built around Lammens in goal behind Dalot, Yoro, Martínez and Mazraoui, with Santos and Mainoo screening in front, and Mbeumo, Fernandes and Cunha working off Šeško, is a strong attacking unit but an unproven defensive one. Yoro and Martínez have not had a long run of matches together as first-choice partners this season, and asking them to do it without their first-choice defensive midfielder in a competition opener, against a forward who scored freely in a lesser league last term, is a real risk factor. It will not cost United the game. It could cost them a clean sheet.
Where United actually win this
The tactical battleground is straightforward on paper: United will have the ball for long periods, and Sabah will sit in a mid-to-low block and look to break through Mickels and whichever runner joins him. The way United dismantle that kind of defense is through width and quick combination rather than pure territorial patience, and that plays to their strongest hand right now. Mbeumo cutting inside off the right, Cunha's directness on the other flank, and Fernandes floating into pockets between Sabah's midfield and defensive lines should create a stream of half-chances even if Sabah defend with real discipline. Šeško's role as a focal point matters here too. Against a back four that will spend most of the night retreating and dealing with crosses and cutbacks, a striker who can win the aerial ball and hold up play under pressure tends to pick up scraps that turn into finishes, even on a night when he is not the most involved outfield player.
The concern for United is game state. If Sabah nick an early goal through Mickels exploiting any hesitancy between Yoro, Martínez and whoever plays at left back, this becomes a different, more nervous occasion than the form line suggests it should be. United have shown across recent seasons that patched-together backlines can be made to look ordinary by direct opponents in the first twenty minutes of matches before the raw quality up the other end takes over. I expect that quality to take over here too, just not without giving something back at the other end first.
The verdict
None of this changes my headline conviction. Manchester United should and will win this game, and comfortably enough that the widely expected margin looks about right. The volume of chances United create against a side that will spend most of the match without the ball points to more than two goals at Old Trafford regardless of what happens defensively, and Šeško is the kind of physical, penalty-box striker who benefits most from that territorial dominance. Where I diverge from the tidiest read of this fixture is on the clean sheet. A defense missing four first-choice players, sweating on a fifth, and facing a proven, in-form finisher with real personal motivation to mark this occasion, should not be backed to keep Sabah out. Mickels growing up on this club, dreaming about this stadium, and then getting his shot against the very team he idolized is too good a script for him not to have at least one real moment in it. I think he gets on the scoresheet. I do not think it is enough to change the outcome. United win, goals go in at both ends, and Old Trafford gets the kind of opening night that looks routine in the final table entry but was considerably livelier while it lasted.
